Al-Qaeda affiliate, terrorist organization Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the hegemonic organization in the Turkish-occupied province of Idlib in northwestern Syria, is planning a large-scale offensive against the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).

As HTS chief propagandist al-Omar confirmed on July 15, the group and its allies could launch their attack when Turkey begins its new military operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by the Kurds in the northern region of Syria.

“The operation of the Turkish Army and the Syrian National Army in Tel Rifaat, Manbij, and the vicinity in the countryside of Aleppo is approaching and, according to the development of the battle, the military operation will not stop in Tel Rifaat, Manbij, and the vicinity, but it will extend towards Raqqa and its countryside, while it is also possible to launch a military operation from the ‘Al-Fateh Al-Mubeen’ Military Operations Room in the countryside of Idlib and Aleppo,” according to his post on Telegram. 

All factions in Greater Idlib coordinate their defensive and offensive operations through the al-Fateh al-Mubeen operations room led by HTS.

Al-Omar’s information corroborates recent reports of a quasi-Turkish-backed offensive by HTS and its allies in government-held areas of western Aleppo province and the southern countryside of Idlib.

Any attack on Idlib will make it easier for Turkey to move against the SDF in northern Syria. Such an attack would distract the SAA and its allies and prevent them from providing any meaningful support to the Kurds.

Many argue that the SAA, backed by the Russian Aerospace Forces, is capable of repelling any attack by HTS and its allies. In fact, several observers, close to the Assad regime, argue that the SAA could even take advantage of the situation and repeat its advance in Idlib. This would mark the end of the Russian-Turkish ceasefire agreement brokered on March 5, 2020.

Also read: Syria | Turkish outpost at a breathing distance from the Syrian and Russian forces